It is unusual to see supermarkets, a discount fashion giant, a DIY chain and the shopworkers' union argue the same case in one voice. The Retail Jobs Alliance and Usdaw are warning that up to 90,000 UK retail jobs could be lost by 2031 without relief on business rates, and they want every shop exempted from the higher multiplier that applies to the largest properties. For sourcing and retail professionals, it is a warning about store estates, supplier volumes and the cost base that sits behind every buying decision.

According to Retail Gazette, Usdaw is leading the push alongside the Retail Jobs Alliance, whose members include Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer, Primark and Kingfisher. Alliance research estimates around 90,000 retail job losses over the next five years, even without further business rates increases, based on HMRC and Office for National Statistics employment trends since 2023. Any further rise in the higher multiplier could push losses beyond that figure.

The numbers behind the argument are stark. Retail pays 21% of business rates but contributes 5% of UK GDP, per the Alliance. About a third of retail workers are employed across roughly 4,000 stores with a rateable value above £500,000, which is the group the higher multiplier hits hardest.

The campaign follows a motion passed at the Labour Party Conference calling for bricks-and-mortar retailers to be exempt from the higher multiplier, and Usdaw points to Labour's manifesto commitment to level the playing field between physical retailers and online businesses. The government has cut business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues, which leaves retailers worried that they now carry a disproportionate share of the tax. Usdaw has welcomed the government's commitment to develop a high streets strategy, but says it must exempt large retail premises from the higher multiplier.

The timing sits against a run of pressure on the sector. Our daily coverage this week alone included Pets at Home committing over £110 million to refurbish 460 stores, Benetton closing its Oxford Street flagship after eight years with revenue down 13%, and Poundland's sale talks reaching a critical stage for a chain of around 600 stores and 12,000 staff. Each is a reminder that large-format property is a fixed cost that does not flex when sales soften.

The union's framing is about security of work. Joanne Thomas, Usdaw general secretary, says: "Job security is a key priority for our members." Martin Beck, spokesperson for the Retail Jobs Alliance, argues that retailers are already absorbing extra costs and that further rates rises would hurt their ability to protect jobs, invest and keep prices down, as reported by Retail Gazette.

Retail Gazette reports no direct government response to this campaign, and it does not tie the push to a specific fiscal event. The counter-argument ministers typically make is that revenue from rates funds local services and that relief for one sector must be paid for elsewhere, so the debate is likely to turn on who bears the cost rather than whether retail is under strain.

The next signals will be the government's high streets strategy and any move on the multiplier in the next fiscal statement, although timing has not been confirmed in the coverage we reviewed. Until then, the sector faces a familiar combination of weak margins, heavy property costs and rising operating costs. Buyers and suppliers should assume retailers will keep trimming space and hours where they can, and plan their own volumes accordingly.