Brent settles at $113.88 and WTI at $99.90 as talks in Tehran ease supply worries, while a Houthi claim over Ras Tanura keeps the premium alive. Reuters reports Brent fell $1.93 (1.67%) and WTI $1.86 (1.83%) on 27th October, both near six month highs, after Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to keep talking, although a deal to end the US and Israeli war with Iran remains elusive. The Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, its largest, with a ballistic missile, but Saudi authorities had not confirmed any strike or damage. UBS now expects Brent to stay near $110 until year end, up from $100, and SEB says the market is pricing a significant chance of a US or Israeli attack on Iran in the coming weeks. The earlier morning move was covered in the previous edition, so the new information here is the settlement, the Ras Tanura claim and the bank forecasts. So what: A diplomatic dip is not a trend, so keep fuel surcharge and war risk assumptions conservative and test budgets across a $108 to $120 Brent range. (Reuters via MarketScreener; Nation Thailand)

Gulf shipping remains disrupted, with a tanker reported disabled in the Strait of Hormuz and a vessel on fire in the Persian Gulf on 26th October. The Straits Daily Brief for 27 October, citing gCaptain, says no attacker has been identified, and gives IMF PortWatch data of 4 transits on 18 October against a pre crisis baseline of 85 a day. That brief is an aggregator, the transit figure is nine days old, and it conflicts with other accounts that flows are recovering, so treat it as the cautious view rather than a current count. So what: Whatever the true transit rate, attacks on vessels are continuing, so keep routing contingencies, delivery buffers and insurance assumptions for Gulf linked lanes in place. (Straits Daily Brief)

US consumer confidence jumps 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, the first rise in four months. The Conference Board's Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4 and the Expectations Index rose 6.9 points to 72.6, partly reversing three straight monthly declines. Dow Jones polled analysts had expected 81, and the reading is the highest since June. Average 12 month inflation expectations fell but remain high at 5.8%, and consumers plan to spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months, with holiday plans slipping to 43.3% from 44.2%. AAA puts regular gasoline at $4.27 a gallon, down from $4.48 a month earlier but up from $3.05 a year ago. Conference Board economist Fergus McCormick said confidence remains on a long term downward trend. So what: Better sentiment is helping, but planned cuts to durables and persistent inflation mean retailers should expect a selective, value driven peak season rather than a broad rebound. (Conference Board via PR Newswire; Seoul Economic Daily)

Target overhauls Threshold, its roughly $3 billion home goods brand, with lower prices and more than 800 new items. The redesign, under CEO Michael Fiddelke, cuts some prices (including $20 off certain comforters), refreshes barware, serveware and bedding, and changes in store displays to show how pieces work together. It is part of a $1 billion multiyear turnaround, and Target cut Threshold prices last month as part of about 10,000 reductions across the store. Jefferies analysts, citing store checks in a 25th September note, said promotions and merchandising changes appear to be drawing shoppers. So what: A major private label reset with lower prices shows big box retailers fighting for home category share, so suppliers should expect pressure on cost and tighter value positioning for 2027. (Retail Dive)

About 12% of S&P 500 companies now disclose AI related goals in executive incentive plans, up from 5% in 2024. Modern Retail, citing Reuters, reports that retailers are still working out how to tie AI usage to executive pay, with Ralph Lauren among those that have added AI metrics to its plan. A recruiter quoted in the piece suggests a team once led by a marketing chief of 10 people could shrink to three or four. The percentage is a Reuters figure relayed by Modern Retail, and the team size example is illustrative rather than data. So what: As AI targets move into pay, expect faster pressure on supply chain and merchandising teams to show measurable productivity gains, so define metrics before they are set for you. (Modern Retail)

The Federal Reserve decides today with the funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% after September's hike, the first in three years. The two day meeting ends with a decision at 2pm Eastern time, Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference follows, and CME FedWatch showed roughly a 90% probability of a hold. A separate market commentary puts the chance of a hold at 92.8% and the odds of a December hike at 84.4%, and BofA's Aditya Bhave argued an October hike could be justified. The commentary figures come from an aggregator, so treat them as indicative. So what: Another hike, or a clear signal of one in December, would lift borrowing costs for inventory and capital spending, so review financing and working capital plans before year end. (Kiplinger; FinanceFeeds)

Asda's Income Tracker shows real terms household spending power up just 2.4% in October, the weakest rate since March. Household incomes rose 3.8% over the year, and spending power has slowed for a third consecutive month. The lowest income families face a £76 weekly shortfall to cover essentials, the second lowest group spends over 90% of income on essentials leaving about £11 a week, and middle income families are only 58p a week better off than a year ago. These are Asda's own figures, so treat them as a retailer published tracker. Cebr's Sam Miley said pressure on household finances looks set to persist. So what: With budgets this stretched, expect continued trading down to value ranges and own label, so suppliers should prepare for promotional intensity and price pack architecture requests ahead of Christmas. (Grocery Gazette)

The oil and Gulf shipping items in the world section are the main cost signals for UK hauliers and importers today.

The Autumn Budget is due at about 12:30pm today, with the IFS estimating fiscal headroom may have fallen to £11 billion from £24 billion. MoneyWeek's live page, published on 27 October, says experts warn Chancellor John Healey may need to raise taxes, citing higher inflation and gilt yields as the cause of the squeeze. Its coverage includes reports that capital gains tax will not rise to match income tax, but it gives no detail on business rates, employer National Insurance or fuel duty, so retailers will not know the outcome of their main asks until the statement. This is a secondary outlet's summary of expectations and leaks rather than announced policy. So what: Retailers have lobbied hard on business rates and employment costs, so be ready to reprice and revise payroll and property cost forecasts within hours of the statement. (MoneyWeek)